But global demand in its entirety probably will not reach that point until mid-2023. And even then, several countries may rely on natural herd immunity rather than vaccination.
ESAI has examined vaccination trends in the top 25 oil-consuming countries, looking at case load, vaccine access, vaccine hesitation and government actions, in order to forecast vaccination rates. If effective national immunisation occurs when 60% of the population is vaccinated or carries sufficient antibodies, at that point, the likelihood of lockdowns and diminished economic activity should drop considerably. This reduction in risk supports oil demand growth. Unfortunately, not all countries are on an easy path to 60% immunisation. Moreover, some may never reach that level of immunisation and will depend on natural herd immunity due to the spread of the disease.
“It seems clear that the threat to economic activity declines as vaccination rates rise, so we should be able to measure the volume of oil demand that remains at risk. Our analysis suggests the threat to global oil demand will last a while,” commented Sarah Emerson, ESAI Energy Principal.
Read the latest issue of Oilfield Technology in full for free: Issue 2 2021
Oilfield Technology’s second issue of 2021 starts with a report from KPMG that examines the outlook for the Scottish oil and gas sector. The rest of the issue is dedicated to articles covering the offshore supply chain industry, offshore asset integrity, expandable liner technology, advances in drilling, data security, flow control, EOR and methane emissions.
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Read the article online at: https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/special-reports/21072021/esai-energy-global-oil-demand-at-risk-into-2023/