EIA: Petroleum liquids supply growth driven by non-OPEC+ countries in 2025 and 2026

EIA forecasts that worldwide production of petroleum and other liquids in 2025 and 2026 will grow more in non-OPEC+ countries than in OPEC+ countries in the February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA estimates that total world petroleum and other liquids supply increased by about 0.6 million bpd in 2024 and will increase by 1.9 million bpd in 2025 and 1.6 million bpd in 2026. Increasing crude oil production from four countries in the Americas – the US, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil – drives this growth. Because of ongoing production restraint among OPEC+ countries, it is forecast that the group’s production will grow by 0.1 million bpd in 2025 and 0.6 million bpd in 2026.

Global petroleum liquids production outside of OPEC+ grew by 1.8 million bpd in 2024 and grows by 1.8 million bpd in 2025 and 1.0 million bpd in 2026 in the forecast. EIA forecasts production will grow from 2024 to 2026 by 0.5 million bpd in Canada, 0.3 million bpd in Guyana, and 0.3 million bpd in Brazil. Most of the forecast growth comes from the US, where it is expected that production will grow by 1.1 million bpd over the same period.

The US continues to produce more crude oil and petroleum liquids than any other country. US crude oil production increased to 13.2 million bpd in 2024 due partly to improved efficiency with fewer rigs. It is expected that production of petroleum liquids in the US will increase by 0.6 million bpd in 2025 and by 0.5 million bpd in 2026. The Permian region accounts for about 50% of US crude oil production of 13.7 million bpd in 2026 in the forecast. Further, the growth in the Permian offsets contractions in other regions.

In 2024, Canada was the fourth-largest oil producing nation, trailing only the US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. EIA forecasts production of petroleum and other liquids to grow in Canada by 0.3 million bpd in 2025 and 0.2 million bpd in 2026, starting at 6.0 million bpd in 2024. Production growth in Canada is supported by the start-up of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion that transports oil to Canada’s West Coast for access to export markets from landlocked Alberta.

EIA expects producers in Brazil to add new Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) units to existing fields in the Santos Basin. The Alexandre de Gusmão will be the fifth FPSO installed at the Mero field and will begin production in mid-2025. Also in 2025, the FPSOs Almirante Tamandaré and P-78 in the Búzios field in the Santos Basin plan to begin operations. EIA forecasts that these new projects will increase petroleum liquids production in Brazil by 0.1 million bpd in 2025 and 0.2 million bpd in 2026.

EIA forecasts that petroleum liquids production in Guyana will increase by 0.2 million bpd in 2025 and 0.1 million bpd in 2026, driven by the start-up of the Yellowtail project within the Stabroek block. The development of the Stabroek block includes three projects, Yellowtail, Uaru, and Whiptail, where it is expected that the combined production capacity will reach approximately 1.3 million bpd by the end of 2027.

Production from OPEC+ members accounted for 47% (35.7 million bpd) of global crude oil production in 2024. EIA forecasts that OPEC+ crude oil production will increase by 0.1 million bpd in 2025 as the group gradually increases production in line with the timeline agreed to at the meeting held in December 2024. In addition, the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd that were announced in November 2023 will be extended until the end of March 2025 and then gradually phased out by the end of September 2026. The additional voluntary production cuts of 1.65 million bpd that were announced in April 2023 were extended until the end of December 2026.

EIA expects OPEC+’s share of global oil production to decrease by one percentage point to 46% in 2025 and 2026, compared with 53% in 2016 when the expanded group was initially formed. OPEC’s surplus crude oil production capacity was 4.6 million bpd in 2024, 103% (2.3 million bpd) more than in 2019. Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer in OPEC by volume, representing about a third of the group’s total supply. In 2024, Saudi Arabia produced 9.0 million bpd, down 13% (1.4 million bpd) compared with 2022—before OPEC+ announced the extension of its additional voluntary cuts.

Among the OPEC+ members, Russia was the largest crude oil producer in 2024, averaging 9.2 million bpd. After Russia and Saudi Arabia, the largest producers by volume were Iraq (4.4 million bpd), the United Arab Emirates (2.9 million bpd), and Kuwait (2.5 million bpd).

 

 

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