EIA: short-term energy outlook

This month EIA published the Winter Fuels Outlook that details its expectations for energy expenditures this winter. In general, EIA expects relatively little change in energy bills for much of the US this winter from last winter as lower energy prices mostly offset colder weather.

EIA reduced its forecast for the Brent crude oil spot price through the end of next year. In this month’s outlook, it is expected that the Brent price will average US$78/bbl in 2025, US$7/bbl less than expected in last month’s EIA short-term energy outlook. In this forecast, lower crude oil prices largely reflect a reduction for global oil demand growth in 2025. Although the crude oil price forecast was reduced, crude oil prices have risen in recent days because of escalating conflict in the Middle East, raising the possibility of oil supply disruptions and further crude oil price increases.

Lower crude oil prices reduce forecast prices for most petroleum products. The largest change from EIA’s last forecast is for propane. EIA forecasts that the Mont Belvieu propane spot price will average US$0.72/gal. in 2025, down 15% from its forecast of US$0.84/gal. last month. For other products, it is now expected that the retail diesel price will average about US$3.50/gal. next year, down by 5% from last month’s forecast. EIA expects that the US average retail gasoline price will average US$3.20/gal. next year, down 2% from last month.

The Henry Hub natural gas spot price rose by 15% to US$2.28/million Btu in September. EIA expects the Henry Hub price to continue rising to around US$2.80/million Btu in the fourth quarter of 2024 and to further increase to around US$3.10/million Btu on average in 2025 as liquefied natural gas exports, a component of total natural gas demand, increase with the addition of capacity.

Hot summer temperatures increased US electricity demand across all sectors in 2024. EIA expects residential electricity sales to increase by 3% in 2024 and by another 1% in 2025. Similarly, electricity demand in the commercial and industrial sectors is expected to grow, increasing by a combined 2% in both 2024 and 2025.

Read the article online at: https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/special-reports/09102024/eia-short-term-energy-outlook/