According to the BP Energy Outlook 2035, the fuel mix is evolving, but fossil fuels will continue to be dominant.
Shares of the major fossil fuels are converging, with oil, natural gas and coal each expected to make up approximately 27% of the total mix in 2035. The remaining share will come from nuclear, hydroelectricity and renewables, each contributing approximately 7%.
Oil is anticipated to be the slowest growing of the major fuels to 2035, with demand growing at an average of approximately 0.8%/y. Despite this, oil will remain the dominant fuel used in 2035 at 109 million bpd (28%).
Natural gas will be the fastest growing of the fossil fuels, with demand rising 1.9%/y to 2035. Non-OECD countries will generate 78% of this growth.
LNG exports are expected to grow more than twice as fast as gas consumption, averaging 3.9%/y, and accounting for 26% of growth in global gas supply
Shale gas supplies will meet 46% of growth in gas demand and account for 21% of world gas and 68% of US gas production by 2035.
Coal will be the second slowest growing major fuel, with demand averaging 1.1%/y to 2035. Over this period, growth will flatten to just 0.6%/y after 2020.
Renewables (including biofuels) are anticipated to be the fastest growing source of energy, averaging 6.4%/y growth and accounting for 7% of total demand by 2035. By 2035, 14% of world electricity is from renewable sources, up from 5% in 2012.
For more information and comment of the BP Energy Outlook 2035, see also Global energy supply: sufficient, secure, sustainable?
Adapted from a press release by Emma McAleavey.
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