PIRA Energy Group has reported that the US is in a much tighter stock position than this time last year. Also, in Japan, low crude imports have drawn stocks.
- High crude stocks on the Gulf Coast led to further disconnect between US and foreign markets in November.
- For the first time this year, US commercial oil inventories have fallen below last year.
- Crude stocks are 14 billion bbls above last year.
- Overall product stocks are 16 million bbls below 2012.
- Petroleum product demand is running 8.5% higher than last year for the four week average.
- Crude imports have moved lower resulting in a strong crude stock draw.
- Gasoline and diesel demand eased back with minor stock changes for both.
- Kerosene stocks have submitted a strong build rate.
- There have been more light product imports into Latin America and Africa due to stagnant refinery capacity.
- The growth in crude production is likely to have a profound impact on the regional crude supply/demand balances.
- Refinery runs in the Atlantic Basin area countries have declined in recent years after peaking in 2005 – 2007 but are expected to resume slow growth with the increases in the US and Latin America offsetting European declines.
- Projected growth in crude production is much greater than the increase in refinery runs.
- The above will most likely result in a large crude surplus in the region forcing foreign markets to be explored with particular focus on Asia.
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