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North American oil output versus OPEC

Oilfield Technology,

GlobalData has said that global oil demand in 2014 is forecast to increase by approximately 1.2 million bpd compared to levels last year, while non-OPEC members’ production will grow by approximately 1.6 million bpd which will reduce the call for OPEC production. GlobalData’s research has also said that a significant increase in non-OPEC production is forecast to occur, particularly in North America, where crude oil and condensate production will increase by approximately 1.3 million bpd.

Carmine Rositano, Managing Analyst, Downstream Oil & Gas, GlobalData, said, ‘crude oil production increases are also expected in South America, the Former Soviet Union and from the greater use of biofuels. This will more than offset slightly lower production anticipated in the North Sea and Mexico.

‘The growth in US oil production of just over 1 million bpd, combined with the expansion of Canadian production, will continue to reduce imports into North America. These could then flow into Asia, where the rise in oil demand will greatly exceed the slight increase forecast in local production.’

The GlobalData research has said that Venezuelan crudes are now more likely to end up in Asia than North America, as Asia imported approximately 1 million bpd of Venezuelan crudes last year. This has increased ton – mile demand in the tanker industry for very large crude carriers, while decreasing the need for shorter haul tanker movements into North America.

Rositano continued, ‘crude oil supply patterns and pricing differentials, along with marine freight rates and refining margins, will continue to be impacted by North America’s higher forecast production levels, especially if the current ban on exporting US crude oil remains in place.

‘It will be interesting to see which OPEC member will reduce its production should Iraq’s output continue to increase and when Libyan production comes back online. It also remains to be seen whether Iran’s export level will increase, should it reach an agreement over the nuclear issue with the West.’

Adapted by Claira Lloyd

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