Rystad Energy: Vaca Muerta smashes crude output record in 3Q24, on track to meet 1 million bpd in 2030

YPF, which accounted for nearly 55% of Vaca Muerta’s oil production last quarter, saw its revenue rise 7% quarter-on-quarter and 18% year-on-year to exceed US$5.3 billion. Independent producer Vista Energy also played a significant role, with its Bajada del Palo Oeste field contributing over 20% of the oil output growth, followed by YPF-operated Bandurria Sur and Loma Campana-Loma La Lata fields.

This growth is also reflected in the increasing number of horizontal wells put on production, which averaged 40 wells per month in the third quarter, up from 33 in the first quarter and 34 in the second. A record 46 new wells were brought online in September alone, of which 39 were in the oil zone and the remainder in the gas zone, underscoring the continued operational efficiency and momentum of Argentina’s flagship shale play.

To sustain this growth, Argentina is investing heavily in energy infrastructure to address bottlenecks. The US$2.5 billion Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline, developed under the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), is a cornerstone of these efforts, aiming to expand takeaway capacity and facilitate smoother oil transportation from Vaca Muerta to global markets. In parallel, Argentina has significantly enhanced its transportation network, boosting domestic supply and export potential. For example, the expansion of the Nestor Kirchner pipeline is designed to improve gas movement efficiency, supporting greater self-sufficiency and potential future LNG exports.

“It can’t be overstated how crucial Vaca Muerta is to Argentina’s energy independence and efforts to reduce imports. Alongside state-owned players, independent producers have a growing influence in the play, contributing 35% of oil production and 23% of gas production. There is every reason to view Vaca Muerta as a central pillar of Argentina’s long-term energy strategy and economic resilience, with a real possibility of reaching the 1 million bpd mark by 2030,” commented Radhika Bansal, Vice President, Upstream Research, Rystad Energy.

These production gains align with the broader narrative shaping Argentina’s energy sector, including a 23% year-on-year increase in natural gas output in the third quarter. With the end of the southern hemisphere winter and subsequent decline in domestic gas demand, the nation is looking to promising assets like Vaca Muerta as a solution to end reliance on gas imports, mainly from Bolivia, for its northern provinces. The country also aims to monetize its gas reserves in export markets, supported by investment incentives targeting infrastructure and storage projects.

Independent producers like Pluspetrol also played a vital role in driving gas production growth last quarter. Alongside fields operated by Tecpetrol and YPF, the Pluspetrol-operated La Calera field jointly accounted for more than 45% of total gas output. YPF’s Aguada de La Arena and TotalEnergies’ Aguada Pichana Este fields followed, contributing 17% and 13% of the total growth, respectively. This upward trend for independent producers is noted for both oil and gas, especially with the latter.

As summer approaches in Argentina, local demand for natural gas typically declines, resulting in reduced gas well activity. This seasonal trend was reflected in the third quarter with only 15 gas wells brought online compared to 27 in the previous quarter. Among the key contributors, Pan American and Pluspetrol each commenced production from four wells, while Pampa and TotalEnergies each added three wells to the total.

Meanwhile, the operator landscape is changing in the Vaca Muerta, following a flurry of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the region. Last month, independent operator Pluspetrol completed a landmark deal to acquire ExxonMobil's assets in the burgeoning shale play after more than a year of negotiations. The acquisition quadruples Pluspetrol's holdings in the basin to approximately 160 000 acres, with the potential to expand further to 215 000 acres if co-owner QatarEnergy chooses to divest. Regardless of QatarEnergy’s decision, the deal solidifies Pluspetrol's position as a leading player in the Vaca Muerta.

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