BP project that by 2035 Brazil will transform itself from an energy importer to an exporter as rising production manages to outpace strong demand growth. Below are some reasons why;
- Brazil energy production rises by 98% while consumption grows by 71%.
- Demand for all fossil fuels expand led by gas, oil and coal.
- Brazil’s energy mix continues to evolve as biofuels take market share from oil in transport and gas replace coal and hydro in power generation. However, oil still remains the most dominant fuel followed by hydro in 2035.
- Fossil fuels will account for 54% of Brazilian energy consumption in 2035, compared to a global average of 81%.
- Brazil’s share of global demand rises slightly to 3% in 2035, accounting for the smallest share of the BRIC countries compared to China (27%), India (7%) and Russia (5%).
- Brazil’s demand growth of 71% does outpace Russia, matches that of China, but lags behind India. It is however near the non-OECD average of 69%.
- Brazil’s energy production as a share of consumption rises from 92% today to 106% by 2035, switching the country from an importer to an exporter.
- Brazil increases production of energy fuel with oil, gas, hydro, renewables in power and biofuels all growing significantly.
- With increases in oil and biofuels production Brazil will become an exporter and the largest producer in South America. Natural gas imports, however, will nearly double from today’s level.
- Energy in transport grows by 72% and while oil remains the dominant fuel it loses market share to biofuels, dropping from 84% to 78%. Biofuels’ 20% market share remains by far the highest in the world.
- Brazil’s energy intensity is 18% lower than today’s level compared to a BRIC average decline of 45%. Despite slower intensity improvement, per capita demand is 5% below the BRIC average.
BP project that by 2035 the US will be energy self sufficient while maintaining its position as the world’s top liquids and natural gas producer. Here are some reasons why;
- US energy production rises by 24% while consumption expands by just 3%.
- Large declines in oil, coal and nuclear demand are more than offset by consumption growth in natural gas and renewables in power.
- With large declines in oil and coal consumption, US CO2 emissions from energy use decline by 6% to levels not realised since the late 1980s.
- Natural gas replaces oil as the leading fuel in US energy consumption around 2027, rising from 30% today to 35% in 2035. Oil’s share falls from 36% to 29%.
- Fossil fuels still account for 80% of US energy demand in 2035, down from today’s 85%, driven by the increase of renewables in power generation from 2 – 8%.
- Energy consumed in transport falls by 18%. Oil remains the dominant fuel source, but its share falls from 95% to 83% as both biofuels and natural gas capture an 8% share by 2035.
- US energy production as a share of consumption rises from 84% in 2012 to 101% in 2035.
- Rising US production of oil and natural gas outpace declines in coal. Oil output will surpass its previous peak while natural gas continues to rise from today’s record levels.
- US tight oil output will triple to 4.5 million bpd in 2035, accounting for a third of liquids production. Shale gas production should more than double to 65 billion ft3/d, reaching nearly 70% of the total.
- With large increases in oil and natural gas production US oil imports drop by nearly 75% to the lowest level on record and the country becomes a net exporter of natural gas by 2017.
- US share of global demand falls from 18% to 13% in 2035 as China rises from 22 – 27%, having passed the US in 2010 as the largest consumer.
- The US will remain the world’s largest producer of natural gas, accounting for nearly 20% in 2035. The US will also be the world’s largest liquids producer starting in 2013.
- US energy intensity will be 40% lower in 2035, falling faster than the global average of 36%. Per capita energy use will be the lowest on record.
Read the article online at: https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/drilling-and-production/22012014/americas_energy_consumption_2035_83/