BP project that by 2035 China will become the world’s largest energy importer, exceeding that of Europe, as import dependence rises from 15 – 20%. Below are some reasons why:
- China’s energy production rises by 61% while consumption grows by 71%.
- China’s share in global demand rises from 22% to 27% in 2035, while it’s growth contributes to 38% of the world’s net gains.
- China’s energy mix continues to evolve natural gas doubling to 12% and oil unchanged at 18%.
- China’s fossil fuel output continues to rise with increases in natural gas by 32%.
- Demand for all fossil fuels expands with oil, gas and coal covering 70% of demand growth.
- China’s CO2 emissions increase by 47% and by 2035 will account for 30% of world total with per capita emissions surpassing the OECD near the end of the outlook.
- With the economy expanding by 247% to 2035, China’s energy intensity declines by 51%, compared to just 20% from 1990 – 10.
- China’s energy production as a share of consumption drops from 85% today to 80% by 2035, making the country the world’s largest net importer.
- China overtakes the US as the world’s largest oil consumer by 2027 and Russia as the world’s second largest gas consumer by 2025.
- Oil import dependence rises from 57% in 2012 to 76% in 2035, while gas dependence rises from 25% to 41%.
- Energy consumed in transport grows by 120%, the fastest among the sectors. Oil remains the dominant fuel but loses market share, dropping from 90% - 82% in 2035. Gas’ share increases from 5% - 12%.
- Industry remains the largest energy consumer of all sectors, but seems the slowest growth, causing its share of demand to drop from 51% to 46%.
BP project that by 2035 India will become increasingly import dependent despite increases in non-fossil fuel production. Here are a few reasons why;
- India’s energy production rises by 112% while consumption grows by 132%.
- Oil imports will rise by 169% and account for over 60% of the net increase in imports, followed by increasing imports of gas.
- Demand for all fossil fuels expands led by gas, oil and coal.
- India’s energy mix evolves very slowly over the next 20 years with fossil fuels accounting for 87% of demand in 2035, compared to a global average of 81%. This is down from 92% today.
- India’s share of global demand rises to 7% in 2035, accounting for the second largest share of the BRIC countries compared to China, Russia and Brazil.
- India’s demand growth of 132% outpaces each of the BRIC countries as Russia, China and Brazil all expand slower. India’s growth is almost double the non-OECD aggregate of 69%.
- India’s energy production as a share of consumption drops from 61% today to just 56% by 2035 as imports rise by 163%.
- Declines in oil production is made up by increases in gas and coal.
- Energy in transport grows by 215% and oil remains the dominant fuel source with a 93% market share in 2035.
- CO2 emissions from energy demand increases by 117%.
- India’s energy intensity is 32% lower than today’s level compared to a BRIC average decline of 46%. Despite slower intensity improvement, per capita demand is 60% below the BRIC average.
Edited from various sources by Claira Lloyd
Read the article online at: https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/drilling-and-production/20012014/asia_energy_to_2035_bp76/