Asian energy consumption to 2035

Oilfield Technology, Monday, 20 January 2014 16:00

China

BP project that by 2035 China will become the world’s largest energy importer, exceeding that of Europe, as import dependence rises from 15 – 20%. Below are some reasons why:

China’s energy production rises by 61% while consumption grows by 71%.
China’s share in global demand rises from 22% to 27% in 2035, while it’s growth contributes to 38% of the world’s net gains.
China’s energy mix continues to evolve natural gas doubling to 12% and oil unchanged at 18%.
China’s fossil fuel output continues to rise with increases in natural gas by 32%.
Demand for all fossil fuels expands with oil, gas and coal covering 70% of demand growth.
China’s CO₂ emissions increase by 47% and by 2035 will account for 30% of world total with per capita emissions surpassing the OECD near the end of the outlook.
With the economy expanding by 247% to 2035, China’s energy intensity declines by 51%, compared to just 20% from 1990 – 10.
China’s energy production as a share of consumption drops from 85% today to 80% by 2035, making the country the world’s largest net importer.
China overtakes the US as the world’s largest oil consumer by 2027 and Russia as the world’s second largest gas consumer by 2025.
Oil import dependence rises from 57% in 2012 to 76% in 2035, while gas dependence rises from 25% to 41%.
Energy consumed in transport grows by 120%, the fastest among the sectors. Oil remains the dominant fuel but loses market share, dropping from 90% - 82% in 2035. Gas’ share increases from 5% - 12%.
Industry remains the largest energy consumer of all sectors, but seems the slowest growth, causing its share of demand to drop from 51% to 46%.

India

BP project that by 2035 India will become increasingly import dependent despite increases in non-fossil fuel production. Here are a few reasons why;

India’s energy production rises by 112% while consumption grows by 132%.
Oil imports will rise by 169% and account for over 60% of the net increase in imports, followed by increasing imports of gas.
Demand for all fossil fuels expands led by gas, oil and coal.
India’s energy mix evolves very slowly over the next 20 years with fossil fuels accounting for 87% of demand in 2035, compared to a global average of 81%. This is down from 92% today.
India’s share of global demand rises to 7% in 2035, accounting for the second largest share of the BRIC countries compared to China, Russia and Brazil.
India’s demand growth of 132% outpaces each of the BRIC countries as Russia, China and Brazil all expand slower. India’s growth is almost double the non-OECD aggregate of 69%.
India’s energy production as a share of consumption drops from 61% today to just 56% by 2035 as imports rise by 163%.
Declines in oil production is made up by increases in gas and coal.
Energy in transport grows by 215% and oil remains the dominant fuel source with a 93% market share in 2035.
CO₂ emissions from energy demand increases by 117%.
India’s energy intensity is 32% lower than today’s level compared to a BRIC average decline of 46%. Despite slower intensity improvement, per capita demand is 60% below the BRIC average.