World energy growth over the next 20 years is expected to be dominated by emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil while improvements in energy efficiency measures are set to accelerate, according to BP’s latest project of energy trends, the BP Energy Outlook 2030.
BP’s ‘base case’ projections are that world primary energy demand growth averages 1.7% per year from 2010 to 2030 although growth decelerates slightly beyond 2020. Non-OECD energy consumption will be 68% higher by 2030 averaging 2.6% per year growth, and accounts for 93% of global energy growth. In contract, OECD growth averages 0.3% per year to 2030; and from 2020 OECD energy consumption per capita is on a declining trend of -0.2% per year.
Transport growth is seen to slow because of a decline in the OECD. The region’s total demand for oil and other liquids peaked in 2005 and will be back at roughly the level of 1990 by 2030. Toward the end of the period, coal demand in China will no longer be rising and China is projected to become the world’s largest oil consumer.
OPEC’s share of global oil production is set to increase to 46%, a position not seen since 1977. At the same time, oil and gas import dependency in the US is likely to fall to levels not seen since the 1990s, because of improved fuel efficiency and the increased share of biofuels. Global consumption growth is also impacted by higher oil prices in recent years and gradual reduction of subsidies in oil importing countries.
The fuel mix changes over time, reflecting long asset lifetimes. Oil, excluding biofuels, will grow relatively slowly at 0.6% per year; natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel with more than three times the projected growth rate of oil at 2.1% per year. Coal will increase by 1.2% per year and by 2030 it is likely to provide virtually as much energy as oil excluding biofuels. The strong carbon policy drive in OECD countries risks being more than offset by growth in emerging economies.
Wind, solar, biofuels and other renewables continue to grow strongly, increasing their share in primary energy from less than 2% now to more than 6% projected by 2030. Biofuels will provide 9% of transport fuels and nuclear and hydropower will grow steadily and gain market share in total energy consumption.
Comments‘The slowing of growth in total energy in transport is related to higher oil prices and improving fuel economy, vehicle saturation in mature economies, and expected increases in taxation and subsidy reduction in developing economies,’ said Rühl. ‘In percentage terms, oil demand is reduced the most in the power sector (-30%) because this is the easiest oil to displace with gas or renewables and is the sector most likely to employ carbon pricing.
BP: The full report can be found at www.bp.com/Energyoutlook2030
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