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GlobalData: Petrobras will drive over 76% of Brazil’s crude and condensate production to 2021

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Oilfield Technology,

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A.’s (Petrobras) liquids production is expected to grow to 2.7 million bpd by 2021. Although in decline, the prolific Roncador field will still drive company’s oil production with over 8.3% share of all the production in 2021. Buzios III (Franco) and Buzios I (Franco) will follow with 5.9% and 5.5% respectively, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

By 2021, 309 fields globally will be contributing liquids production to Petrobras, with the expected equity weighted production of over 2.7 million bpd and 24 new oil projects will be responsible for about 1.1 million bpd in 2021. Projects in Brazil will be responsible for 97.7% or 2.6 million bpd of production, followed by projects in the US with 1.2% (32 500 bpd) of production in 2021.

Conventional oil and heavy oil fields will be responsible for 2.6 million bpd of production in 2021, while condensate from conventional gas developments will contribute 16 800 bpd to Petrobras’s liquids production by 2021. Ultra-deepwater fields contribute about 69.3%, while deepwater fields contribute around 24.1 percent of the total liquids production. Shallow water and onshore fields contribute about 3.6% and 3.0%, respectively.

Petrobras is expected to spend US$45.6 billion between 2018 and 2021 on conventional and heavy oil projects, with Capex peaking in 2018 at US$13.1 billion. Venezuela is expected to have the highest remaining Capex per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) with US$58/boe, whereas projects in which Petrobras has participation have low remaining recoverable reserves, as those fields are at the final part of their productive life. The company’s projects in the US are expected to have the lowest average remaining Capex per boe at US$3.2/boe. The projects in Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia and Nigeria are forecast to have the remaining Capex of US$6.6, US$6.1, US$5.6 and US$5.3 per boe respectively.

Among the fields in which Petrobras has equity stake, the ultra-deepwater Roncador field in Brazil is the major oil producing field with expected contribution of about 220 200 bpd of oil in 2021. The project has a remaining break-even oil price of US$25/bbl.

Another important field is the ultra-deepwater pre-salt Libra Noroeste (Mero) project, which will contribute approximately 39 100 bpd of oil to Petrobras by 2021. The company’s share of remaining recoverable oil reserves from the field total 643 million bbls. Libra Noroeste (Mero) has a remaining break-even oil price of US$35/bbl.

Buzios III (Franco) also in Brazil is one of the major ultra-deepwater oil producing fields, which is expected to contribute around 156 500 bpd of oil in 2021 with the remaining break-even of US$23/bbl of oil.

Another ultra-deepwater oil producing Buzios I (Franco) field in Brazil is expected to contribute about 146 500 bpd of oil by 2021 with the remaining break-even oil price of US$32/bbl.

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