Decision making in the face of risk and uncertainty

As a particularly relevant topic in the oil and gas industry at the moment, The Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Aberdeen Section is looking forward to welcoming Pete Naylor, BG Group (a wholly owned subsidiary of Shell) and SPE Distinguished Lecturer, to discuss the role of Decision Risk Analysis (DRA) and value of information (VOI) in helping make better appraisal and development decisions.

Behavioural science suggests that human nature favours decisions that satisfy, not necessarily those that optimise. Often value is left on the table, particularly when risks and uncertainties are involved. More than fifty years ago the concept of DRA was born and this approach helps us to overcome this human limitation and to optimise not just survive. DRA is a structured process involving both facilitation and modelling that helps stakeholders optimise their decision making in the face of risks and uncertainties.

Ahead of the presentation Dr Naylor said: “Decisions come in all shapes and sizes and so does the best way to optimise the chosen value measures. VOI is one tool in the armoury and is an acronym used by many, but maybe understood by few. The when, why and how of VOI will be explained, so hopefully, by the end of this talk the listeners will expand the ranks of the ‘few’.”

Dr Naylor, a Chartered Scientist, a Chartered Engineer and a Fellow of the Institution of Chemical Engineers, has over 30 years of experience in oil and gas and for the past 16 years has led DRA studies to optimise significant investment decisions. He also leads project risk management studies helping managers to achieve their objectives on time and budget. He has presented widely and has published more than 40 papers.

Ian Phillips, SPE Aberdeen chairman, said: “We are delighted to welcome Dr Naylor to our next technical meeting. Risk and uncertainty are in particularly sharp focus in our industry right now, making this a very timely presentation. This is a great opportunity for our members and other industry professionals to hear about this powerful process to help decision making, particularly where outcomes are uncertain.”

The presentation will take place on Wednesday 23 March at the Aberdeen Douglas Hotel from 6.15 - 8.45 pm. This presentation is a part of a monthly programme of technical presentations organised by SPE Aberdeen and sponsored by Expro and Statoil. For more information and to book, please click here: https://www.spe-uk.org/aberdeen/event

Adapted from a press release by David Bizley

Read the article online at: https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/drilling-and-production/17032016/decision-making-in-the-face-of-risk-and-uncertainty/