After decades of decline, crude oil production in Alaska is growing, driven by two projects on Alaska’s North Slope. In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we expect a 23 000 bpd (6%) increase in 2026, followed by a 60 000 bpd (13%) rise in 2027. At a forecast 505,000 b/d in 2027, output would be the most since 2014.
If realised, these annual production increases will be the largest since the 1980s, when Alaskan crude production peaked at 2.0 million bpd.
The recent growth is attributable to two projects on Alaska's North Slope:
The Nuna project, owned by ConocoPhillips, started production in December 2024 and is expected to produce 20 000 bpd at its peak. So far this year, it has produced an average of 10 000 bpd, partially offsetting existing production declines.
The Pikka Phase 1 project, jointly owned by Santos and Repsol, began production in May 2026 with initial average monthly production of 2000 bpd and reaching 38 000 bpd as of September 2026, according to data from the Alaska Oil & Gas Conservation Commission. We expect peak production of 80 000 bpd by winter 2026 - 27, nearly 20% of total Alaskan production in 2025.
Notably, our STEO production data indicate that third-quarter 2026 production grew 4% as Pikka Phase 1 came online, marking the first third-quarter production increase in more than 40 years. Alaskan crude output typically dips in late summer when operators conduct annual maintenance, running an average of 7% lower than first-quarter levels over the previous five years (2021 - 2025).
