Global oil supplies rose 250 000 bpd in April from the preceding month to 96.2 million bpd as higher OPEC output more than offset deepening declines in non-OPEC countries, according to the newly released IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for May.
But year-on-year, world output grew by just 50 000 bpd in April versus the rise of more than 3.5 million bpd a year earlier. Non-OPEC supply is forecast to drop by 800 000 bpd in 2016 to 56.8 million bpd.
OPEC crude output rose by 330 000 bpd in April to 32.76 million bpd as a 300 000 bpd jump in Iranian flows and a boost in supply from Iraq and the United Arab Emirates more than offset outages in Kuwait and Nigeria. Saudi output was steady near 10.2 million bpd. Iranian supply rose to 3.56 million bpd, a level last hit in November 2011, before sanctions were tightened. ?
The OMR for May revised global oil demand growth for the first quarter of 2016 upwards to 1.4 million bpd, led by strong gains in India, China and, more surprisingly, Russia. For the year as a whole, growth will be around 1.2 million bpd, with demand reaching 95.9 million bpd. ?
Stock builds are beginning to slow in the OECD: in the first quarter they grew at their slowest rate since the last quarter of 2014 and February saw the first draw in a year. In March, OECD commercial inventories fell by a slim 1.1 million bpd, with preliminary data for April suggesting that stocks rebounded while oil held in floating storage rose. ?
Global refinery throughput for the current quarter is forecast at 79.6 million bpd, with the 700 000 bpd year-on-year gain falling below anticipated demand growth of 1.2 million bpd. The estimate for the previous quarter has been revised higher by 200 000 bpd to 79.5 million bpd. India and Saudi Arabia are set to lead global annual increases this year. ?
Adapted from press release by Rosalie Starling
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