The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that US oil production will average 12.4 million bpd during 2023, surpassing the record high for domestic crude oil production set in 2019.
In its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts US crude oil production will increase for nine consecutive quarters, from 4Q21 to 2023.
EIA also expects OPEC to increase its crude oil production to 28.9 million bpd in 2023, up from an average of 26.3 million bpd in 2021.
“We expect global demand for petroleum products to return to and surpass pre-pandemic levels this year, but crude oil production grows at a faster rate in our forecasts,” said EIA Acting Administrator Steve Nalley. “We expect that as crude oil production increases, inventories will begin to replenish and help push prices lower for gasoline, jet fuel, and other products in the short term.”
EIA forecasts that US commercial crude oil inventories will reach 465 million bbls at the end of 2023, which is about 11% more than inventories at the end of 2021.
Other key takeaways from the latest STEO include:
- EIA estimates that the US produced 1.5 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) of solar power in 2021, a 23.7% increase from 2020. EIA forecasts US consumption of solar-generated electricity to increase a further 27.3% in 2022 and 25.2% in 2023.
- By September 2023, EIA expects US natural gas production to reach an average of 98 billion ft3/d for the first time and then to average 98.2 billion ft3/d the second half of 2023.
- US coal consumption increased by 14% in 2021 in response to growing demand for coal-fired electricity. EIA expects US coal consumption to decrease by 2% in 2022 and remain relatively unchanged in 2023. Despite the decrease in consumption, EIA forecasts that coal production will increase 6% in 2022.
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