Comments on ExxonMobil’s energy outlook

William Colton, VP for strategic planning ExxonMobil, at the launch of the outlook

Colton began his presentation on the outlook by highlighting the fact that people do not think much about energy but that behind the scenes there are an enormous amount of challenges that need to be over come. He then went on to comment that the outlook provided by ExxonMobil annually, has never been more positive in its projections and comment.

Colton laid out the following facts and opinions:

• Energy demand is going to increase by 35% in OECD countries to 2040
• Non-OECD energy demand is to grow by 67% to 2040
• Transportation is expected to be the biggest influence on global oil demand
• Natural gas is an easy and practical choice as there is already the technology, it’s cheap and it’s flexible
• Natural gas is robust and has a good supply at competitive prices
• Coal use will mainly be impacted by CO₂ policy
• LNG demand is expected to triple by 2040
• Energy trade is going to be even more important in the future than now
• The power of human innovation is going to be what keeps the energy industry strong and developing

Rex W. Tillerson, chairman and CEO of ExxonMobil Corporation

‘Understanding global energy trends is absolutely critical for effective energy policy. The world depends on safe, reliable and affordable energy development to support economic growth and our modern way of life.’

Greg Hammond, partner, Eversheds

‘There seems to be little doubt that for environmental (and therefore also political) reasons, gas will be preferred over coal in the coming years where possible. However, if the current economic climate continues, price will be the key driver in the energy mix. While gas may be cheap and widely available in the US due to the shale gas revolution, it still remains to be seen whether unconventional gas can achieve the same level of success in other regions such as Europe.

‘Indeed, while Europe works to appraise the potential of its shale deposits, the abundance of shale gas in the US is driving down the global price of coal. As a result, it’s now viewed as a comparatively cheap source of fuel for European power stations. There are therefore strong global price drivers at play impacting the energy mix and we can expect there to be stark variations in the pattern of regional fuel consumption for some time to come. It’s for these reasons that countries such as the UK are creating ever more attractive incentives to develop their shale deposits.’

For details on the outlook click below:

• ExxonMobil’s outlook for energy: Part 1
• ExxonMobil’s outlook for energy: Part 1

Edited from various sources by Claira Lloyd

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