PIM develops Monte Carlo method for application in integrity management

A method originally developed by scientists working on nuclear weapons projects at the Los Alamos National Laboratories in the 1940s is being applied in the oil and gas industry to allow companies to make true risk based decisions. Applications of the Monte Carlo method, a type of probabilistic analysis, which can be used to assess likelihood and risk under uncertainty have been developed by Plant Integrity Management Ltd (PIM), an innovative Aberdeenshire business which specialises in integrity management for oil and gas operators and service companies.

PIM’s director of risk and IT solutions, Martin Worth will deliver a talk entitled ‘a probabilistic approach to corrosion based decision making’ at an upcoming Energy Institute event. The event, ‘asset integrity, ageing and life extension in a challenging economic and efficiencies driven era’, is being held on 27 October 2015 at Hilton Aberdeen Treetops Hotel.

Martin said, “Monte Carlo analysis is computationally intensive and only became generally practicable with the advent of modern computers. Even today it is considered by many to be an overly complex, specialist, not to mention expensive approach; the reality however is very different.

Advances in technology

“The technology which is around today is virtually unrecognisable from when the Monte Carlo method was first developed back in the 1940s. Huge advances have been made. Today’s computers are more than capable of running detailed Monte Carlo simulations, but to date, its use within the oil and gas industry has generally been limited to areas such as considering the financial risks associated with large projects.”

“PIM has developed implementations of the Monte Carlo method which can be applied specifically to integrity management, and can deliver probabilistic estimates of failure dates or the probability of failure by a specified future date, such as cessation of production (CoP). Companies can then use these estimates to make true risk based decisions rather than working from discrete ‘best guess’ values,” continued Martin.

“It can be applied to determine the probable remaining life of equipment which is difficult or even impossible to inspect or, in some cases, may never have been inspected.”

He added, “This approach is also relevant to the quantification and communication of the risks associated with deferral of repairs, inspections or fabric maintenance as well as determining the quantified implications of predicted cessation of production dates on the requirements for repair, inspection or fabric maintenance.”

The conference will be chaired by Dr Cameron Stewart, Upstream Technical Manager, Energy Institute. He says, ‘To support energy demand, oil and gas companies are making the most of their mature basins to maximise their offshore assets. This does not come without its challenges. We have put together a conference programme to discuss the technical issues and communicate updates on good practice. At this event, we are delighted to welcome senior colleagues from both the UK Health and Safety Executive, and the Oil and Gas Authority – both important additions to our speaker line-up. This annual conference brings together oil and gas operators with safety experts to examine and share new approaches and ideas to develop more efficient working practices for ageing assets.’

Visit www.energyinst.org/events/view/4537 to book event tickets.

Read the article online at: https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/drilling-and-production/22102015/pim-develops-monte-carlo-method-for-application-in-integrity-management/