Highlights from IEA’s short-term energy outlook
Brent crude
North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices increased from a monthly average of US$ 108/bbl in April to US$ 110/bbl in May. This was the 11th consecutive month in which the average Brent crude oil spot price fell within a relatively narrow range of US$ 107/bbl to US$ 112/bbl.
WTI crude
The discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent crude oil, which averaged more than US$ 13/bbl from November through January, fell below US$ 4/bbl in early April before increasing to an average of US$ 7/bbl in May. EIA projects Brent crude oil prices to average US$ 108/bbl in 2014 and US$ 102/bbl in 2015 and the WTI discount to Brent to average US$ 9/bbl and US$ 11/bbl in 2014 and 2015, respectively.
Gasoline prices
During the April-through-September summer driving season this year, regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average US$ 3.62/gal., 4 cents higher than last year. The projected monthly national average regular gasoline retail price falls from the high this year of US$ 3.67/gal. in May to US$ 3.54/gal. in September. EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average US$ 3.50/gal. in 2014 and US$ 3.38/gal. in 2015, compared with US$ 3.51/gal. in 2013.
US crude oil
EIA estimates that US total crude oil production averaged almost 8.4 million bpd in May, the highest monthly average production since March 1988. US total crude oil production, which averaged 7.4 million bpd in 2013, is expected to average 8.4 million bpd in 2014 and 9.3 million bpd in 2015. The 2015 forecast represents the highest annual average level of oil production since 1972.
Natural gas
Natural gas working inventories on 30 May totalled 1.50 trillion ft3, 0.74 trillion ft3 (33%) below the level at the same time a year ago and 0.90 trillion ft3 (37%) below the previous five-year average (2009-13). EIA expects that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged US$ 3.73/MMBtu in 2013, will average US$ 4.74/MMBtu in 2014 and US$ 4.49/MMBtu in 2015.
Gulf of Mexico
Based on the outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for near- to below-normal tropical weather activity this year, EIA’s mean estimates of shut-in production in the federal Gulf of Mexico (GOM) during the current hurricane season (June through November) total 12 million bbl of crude oil and 30 billion ft3 of natural gas. Actual shut-ins are likely to differ significantly from this estimate depending on the number, track, and strength of hurricanes as the season progresses.
Source: US Energy Information Administration. Edited by Katie Woodward
Read the article online at: https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/drilling-and-production/11062014/us_eia_short_term_energy_outlook_june_2014_821/
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