EIA: Gulf of Mexico oil and natural gas production expected to remain stable through 2026

The EIA expects GoA natural gas production to average 1.72 billion ft³/d in 2025 and 1.64 billion ft³/d in 2026, compared with 1.79 billion ft³/d in 2024. At these volumes, the GoA is forecast to contribute about 13% of US crude oil production and 1% of US marketed natural gas production in 2025 and 2026.

The EIA expects operators to start crude oil and natural gas production at 13 fields in the GoA during 2025 and 2026, without which GOA production would decline. Eight fields will be developed using subsea tiebacks or underwater extensions to existing Floating Production Units (FPUs) at the surface. Five fields will produce from four new FPUs, with one of the new FPUs (Salamanca FPU) targeting production from two fields.

The EIA expects the additional crude oil production from all new fields will contribute 85 000 bpd in 2025 and 308 000 bpd in 2026. The EIA expects associated natural gas production from the new fields will average 0.09 billion ft³/d in 2025 and 0.27 billion ft³/d in 2026.

Three fields began producing earlier this year:

Whale

Whale, one of the largest fields expected to come online in 2025 and 2026, started producing in January 2025 from a new FPU of the same name. The Whale FPU, located in more than 8600 ft of water, is expected to produce around 85 000 bpd of crude oil at its peak.

Ballymore

The Ballymore field started production in April 2025 as a subsea tieback to the existing Blind Faith facility, and it is expected to produce 75 000 bpd from the Ballymore wells in the emerging Upper Jurassic/Norphlet play.

Dover

The Dover field also started production in April as a subsea tieback to the existing Appomattox facility with expected peak production of around 15 000 bpd.

Production coming online in the 2H25:

Shenandoah

The Shenandoah field, which will produce from an FPU of the same name, is scheduled to start production in June 2025 with an initial capacity of 120 000 bpd, which will be expanded to 140 000 bpd in early 2026. The Shenandoah Phase 1 development will use new technologies to produce from a deepwater high-pressure field.

Leon and Castile

Another new FPU is expected to come online in the 2H25, Salamanca, will process oil and natural gas from the Leon and Castile discoveries. The Salamanca project involved refurbishing a previously decommissioned production facility and has a capacity of 60 000 bpd of oil and 40 million ft³/d of natural gas.

It is expected that other subsea tiebacks to existing facilities will enter production in late 2025: Katmai West, Sunspear, Argos Southwest Extension, and Zephyrus Phase 1.

Production coming online in 2026:

Three new subsea tiebacks are expected to begin production in 2026: Silvertip Phase 3, Longclaw, and Monument, a subsea tieback to the Shenandoah FPU.

Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico could disrupt the production and development timeline of these new fields. Colorado State University anticipates that the 2025 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity with 17 named storms.

 

 

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