EIA adjusts forecast for US oil production as producers set a record in July 2025

EIA data show US crude oil production reached a record high of more than 13.6 million bpd in July, which was higher than EIA’s previous production estimate.

Highlights from the October STEO include:

• Global oil prices: EIA expects global production of crude oil and petroleum products to increase through 2026, leading to continued growth in global petroleum inventories. This inventory growth pushes oil prices down in EIA’s forecast, with the Brent crude oil price declining to average US$62/bbl in the fourth quarter of 2025 and US$52/bbl in 2026.
• Global oil production: EIA once again expects oil production growth to be led by countries outside of OPEC+. Although OPEC+ has announced a significant rebound in its oil production targets, EIA expects OPEC+ production will remain below announced targets, preventing inventory builds from accelerating too quickly and limiting the decrease in oil prices.
• Uncertainty: Significant uncertainties remain for both oil supply and demand, which could affect EIA’s forecast for oil prices. The October STEO forecast was completed before the announcement of the fire at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery, which accounts for 17% of California’s refinery capacity. Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s oil ports have raised market concerns that oil production or exports could be disrupted. In addition, uncertainty persists about how long China will continue to purchase oil to build its domestic inventories, a trend that EIA believes has propped up oil prices recently.
• US crude oil production: EIA’s latest data show US crude oil production reached a record-high 13.6 million bpd in July, which was higher than previous EIA estimates and raised the starting point for EIA’s October forecast. EIA continues to expect crude oil production will decline from its recent peak as oil prices fall, but it revised its forecasts upward for average 2025 and 2026 US crude oil production to 13.5 million bpd in both years.
• Natural gas prices: EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price will rise from just under US$3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in September to US$4.10 per MMBtu in January. The January forecast price is almost 50 cents/MMBtu lower than it was in the September STEO. Lower forecast natural gas prices largely reflect the expectation that US natural gas production will be higher than previously forecast, leading to more natural gas in storage.
• LNG export capacity: The United States is expected to add 5 billion ft³/d) in liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity in 2025 and 2026 as Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 come online. EIA expects the increased LNG export capacity will increase total US LNG exports to 15 billion ft³/d in 2025 and to 16 billion ft³/d in 2026, up from 12 billion ft³/d in 2024.
• Coal consumption: The electric power sector consumed 15% more coal in the first half of 2025 than in the first half of 2024, driven by higher electricity demand and higher natural gas prices. EIA expects increased coal consumption in the electric power sector to slow down in the second half of 2025 and to decrease in 2026 as generation from utility-scale solar facilities increases.

The full October 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook is available on the EIA website.

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