Rystad Energy has revised its estimates of the effect of Covid-19 on global oil demand and is now forecasting a decrease of 2.8%, or 2.8 million bpd y/y.
Rystad's estimates show that total oil demand in 2019 was approximately 99.9 million bpd, which is now projected to decline to 97.1 million bpd in 2020. To put the number into context, last week Rystad projected a decrease of just 600 000 bbl.
At the moment Rystad expect the month of April to take the biggest hit, with demand for oil falling by as much as 11 million bpd y/y.
This downgrade takes into account developments that happened within the course of last week such as the new quarantine lockdowns across Europe and the declaration of a state of emergency in the US, as well as updated simulations of the virus’ growth patterns this year.